The success of the Alternative for Germany, or AfD, is a sign of the times. Across Europe, far-right parties once on the fringe have gone mainstream.

Europe must seek to “achieve independence” from the United States, Germany’s likely next chancellor Friedrich Merz said after his opposition conservatives won elections on Sunday, in a vote that also saw surging support for the far-right.

Polls are open across Germany as the world’s third largest economy chooses a new leader to guide it through an era of febrile immigration debates and souring relations with Washington.

Alternative for Germany (AfD) is now on course to win 20.5% of the vote, according to latest projections - but there is no way Friedrich Merz will work with it because of a long-standing political taboo against working with the far right, known as a Brandmauer - a firewall.

The map above shows the 2025 election results, and the one below shows the 2021 results. It's official: Friedrich Merz 's conservatives won the German election. But it could take weeks for the likely chancellor to weather through messy coalition talks and form a government -- particularly since Merz said he won't work with the party who came in second place.