YR4 has grabbed headlines lately, after NASA calculated a 1-in-32 chance of an impact in 2032 – the highest chance ever for an asteroid of hazardous size. Thankfully, new observations have dropped that probability to almost zero – for Earth,

Within this short window of study, scientists have given the asteroid a 3.1% chance of colliding with Earth. That’s 1-in-32 odds. This is the highest chance of a collision ever given to an observed asteroid.

Astronomers are closely monitoring asteroid 2024 YR4, which once had the highest recorded impact probability for its size. Current estimates place its chance of hitting Earth at 1.5% in 2032, with a smaller risk for the Moon.

The chances that an asteroid hits Earth in 2032 are now at their highest since the object was first discovered, according to NASA.

The chances of asteroid 2024 YR4’s odds of colliding with Earth in 2032 have dropped to nearly zero, thanks to new observations of the space rock.

NASA has revised the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth on December 22, 2032, reducing it to 0.28%. There are indications it may collide with the Moon instead.